|Authors||S. M. Hohle and K. Teigen|
|Title||Less than 50 percent or more than 30 percent chance? Pragmatic implications of single-bound probability estimates|
|Year of Publication||2016|
|Publisher||Society for Judgment and Decision Making|
|Place Published||Boston, MA|
|Keywords||climate communication, forecasts, psychology, uncertainty communication|
Approximate probabilities are often communicated as single-bound intervals. For instance, La Niña can be described as having “more than 70% chance” or “less than 90% chance” of occurrence. Such single-bound statements yield pragmatic (qualitative) information in addition to the numeric probabilities indicated. We show in three experiments that such statements are directional; more-than statements are given positive reasons, they are compatible with other positive statements, and they suggest an upward trend, whereas less-than statements indicate future downward revisions and suggest that the target event may eventually fail to occur.