AuthorsS. M. Hohle and K. Teigen
TitleLess than 50 percent or more than 30 percent chance? Pragmatic implications of single-bound probability estimates
AfilliationSoftware Engineering
StatusPublished
Publication TypePoster
Year of Publication2016
PublisherSociety for Judgment and Decision Making
Place PublishedBoston, MA
Keywordsclimate communication, forecasts, psychology, uncertainty communication
Abstract

Approximate probabilities are often communicated as single-bound intervals. For instance, La Niña can be described as having “more than 70% chance” or “less than 90% chance” of occurrence. Such single-bound statements yield pragmatic (qualitative) information in addition to the numeric probabilities indicated. We show in three experiments that such statements are directional; more-than statements are given positive reasons, they are compatible with other positive statements, and they suggest an upward trend, whereas less-than statements indicate future downward revisions and suggest that the target event may eventually fail to occur.

Citation Key24889