|Authors||S. M. Hohle and K. Teigen|
|Title||The Trend Effect: When a Climate Forecast is Revised, Receivers Expect Further Revisions In the Same Direction|
|Afilliation||Software Engineering, Software Engineering|
|Year of Publication||2015|
|Secondary Title||SJDM conference 2015|
|Publisher||Society for Judgment and Decision Making|
|Place Published||Chicago, IL|
People often make predictions about the future based on trends they have observed in the past. Revised probabilistic forecasts can be perceived by non-experts as indicative of such a trend, which they expect to be continued in future forecasts. In five studies, we found evidence of a trend effect based on two observed forecasts regarding various natural events (climate changes, landslides, earthquakes). People believed that a prognosis or a risk that had been upgraded or downgraded from one point in time (T1) to another (T2) would continue to change in the same direction in the future (at T3).