AuthorsS. M. Hohle and K. Teigen
TitleThe Trend Effect: When a Climate Forecast is Revised, Receivers Expect Further Revisions In the Same Direction
AfilliationSoftware Engineering, Software Engineering
Publication TypePoster
Year of Publication2015
Secondary TitleSJDM conference 2015
Date Published11/2015
PublisherSociety for Judgment and Decision Making
Place PublishedChicago, IL

People often make predictions about the future based on trends they have observed in the past. Revised probabilistic forecasts can be perceived by non-experts as indicative of such a trend, which they expect to be continued in future forecasts. In five studies, we found evidence of a trend effect based on two observed forecasts regarding various natural events (climate changes, landslides, earthquakes). People believed that a prognosis or a risk that had been upgraded or downgraded from one point in time (T1) to another (T2) would continue to change in the same direction in the future (at T3). 

Citation Key23973