AuthorsE. Løhre, K. Teigen and S. M. Hohle
TitleTrusting an uncertain forecaster: Judgments of revised intervals in predictions of climate change
AfilliationSoftware Engineering, Software Engineering
Publication TypePoster
Year of Publication2015
PublisherSociety for Judgment and Decision Making
Place PublishedChicago, IL

Climate changes and other uncertain future outcomes are sometimes predicted using intervals (e.g., “it will be 1.4-3.1ºC warmer by 2100”). Two experi-ments showed that revisions of interval forecasts can influence lay people’s evaluations of the forecaster. Experiment 1 showed that an expert whose revised interval forecast is narrower than the previous forecast, is trusted more than an expert whose revised interval is wider. Experiment 2 showed that revising the lower bound of the interval downwards reduced trust, while revising the upper bound upwards did not. The results indicate that even though revisions may be due to external changes, they are used as a cue for evaluating the trustworthiness of an expert.

Citation Key24594