|Authors||J. E. Hannay, K. Brathen and J. I. Hyndøy|
|Title||On How Simulations Can Support Adaptive Thinking in Operations Planning|
|Publication Type||Proceedings, refereed|
|Year of Publication||2015|
|Conference Name||NATO Modelling and Simulation Group Symp. M&S Support to Operational Tasks Including War Gaming, Logistics, Cyber Defence (MSG-133)|
|Publisher||NATO Science and Technology Organization|
Modern operations planning directives have well-defined stages for developing, testing and rehearsing plans. At the same time, it is acknowledged that warfare is highly unpredictable and hard to plan. However, it is also acknowledged that the planning process in itself gives insights that may prepare for unpredictable situations. We outline how simulations might support and augment operations planning processes by supporting and developing so-called adaptive thinking. In particular, simulation-supported course of action analysis enables multiple trials and analyses, which, (1) enables planners to investigate a larger number of COAs with consequences, thereby broadening the perspective of planners to the possibility of diverse outcomes, (2) may include critical cases generalizable to ranges of COAs, and (3) may include elements targeted to induce adaptive thinking directly. The latter may employ artificial elements to target task processes central to adaptive performance. We conclude that so-called passive decision support systems in a case-driven simulation mode is appropriate for enhancing adaptive thinking.