AuthorsE. Løhre
TitleRevised forecasts: the bolder, the better
AfilliationSoftware Engineering, Software Engineering
Publication TypePoster
Year of Publication2016
Date Published11/2016
PublisherSocietey for Judgment and Decision Making
Place PublishedBoston, MA

Lay people perceive climate change forecasts revised in an upward direction (e.g., a higher sea level rise predicted in light of new information) as more certain, compared to downward revisions. This indicates that people view prob-abilities as causal tendencies (propensities), and associate strong propensities with stronger (and sooner) outcomes.

Citation Key24906