|Title||Revised forecasts: the bolder, the better|
|Afilliation||Software Engineering, Software Engineering|
|Year of Publication||2016|
|Publisher||Societey for Judgment and Decision Making|
|Place Published||Boston, MA|
Lay people perceive climate change forecasts revised in an upward direction (e.g., a higher sea level rise predicted in light of new information) as more certain, compared to downward revisions. This indicates that people view prob-abilities as causal tendencies (propensities), and associate strong propensities with stronger (and sooner) outcomes.