AuthorsK. Teigen and M. Jørgensen
TitleWhen 90% Confidence Intervals Are Only 50% Certain: on the Credibility of Credible Intervals
AfilliationSoftware Engineering, Software Engineering
StatusPublished
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2005
JournalApplied Cognitive Psychology
Volume19
Number4
Pagination455-475
Abstract

Estimates of confidence intervals for general knowledge items are usually too narrow. We report five experiments showing that people have much less confidence in these intervals than dictated by the assigned level of confidence. For instance, 90% intervals can be associated with an estimated confidence of 50% or less (and still lower hit rates). Moreover, interval width appears to remain stable over a wide range of instructions (high and low numeric and verbal confidence levels). This leads to a high degree of overconfidence for 90% intervals, but less for 50% intervals or for free choice intervals (without an assigned degree of confidence). To increase interval width one may have to ask exclusion rather than inclusion questions, for instance by soliciting “improbable” upper and lower values (Experiment 4), or by asking separate “more than” and “less than” questions (Experiment 5). We conclude that interval width and degree of confidence have different determinants, and cannot be regarded as equivalent ways of expressing uncertainty.

Citation KeyTeigen.2005.1